054 – Kieran Duff – Trading for a Living is Easier Now

This Is the Way to Make a Living Out of Trading

 

Every trader eventually asks the same question: can this actually pay the bills? Not “can I have a good month,” but can it cover the mortgage, the school fees, the whole unglamorous machinery of a real life. Run the maths honestly and the answer for almost everyone trading their own account is no. Not because the strategy is bad, but because the account is too small and the withdrawals never stop. There is a way to make trading pay properly. It isn’t the one YouTube keeps selling you, and it probably isn’t the one you’re currently attempting either.


In this pod I mixed things up and spoke to a trader without a big fund, a published book, or decades of experience – but that’s what makes it so educational for the rest of us. Within a few short years he’s accumulated a solid track record, and instantly commercialised it by attracting outside money on one of the few platforms that allows a trader to ‘trade their way’ and increase their assets under management (AUM). This is in contrast to the most visible ‘other option’ for getting funded – the prop firms – which are extremely problematic – as I’ll show. The third pathway involves getting licensed and building out a hedge fund (or similar) which is a costly exercise, and in most countries, shipped with extreme regulatory burdens. Not something that you usually want to do until you’ve already got a track, and some external AUM.


The Maths Nobody Runs

Say you want $100,000 a year to live on, family included. On a $50,000 account, that’s a 200% annual return, sustained, forever, with no down years, or they take your house away from you. On a $250,000 account it’s still 40%, which would put you ahead of nearly every top-decile hedge fund on the planet, indefinitely.

Now factor in the part nobody mentions: withdrawals. Every dollar pulled out to pay bills is a dollar that stops compounding. A trader living off a small account isn’t compounding at all; they’re on a treadmill, and the back-tested returns, contingent as they are on a steady balance, will never be realised.

This is why “make $X,000 a month trading” content is pure marketing. It’s an income claim in an industry that only does lumpy returns. It conveniently skips position sizing, drawdown, and what happens in the inevitable bad month. Professionals don’t talk this way. They talk in percentage returns, or risk-adjusted percentage returns (usually Sharpe), because that’s the way you think if you’re considering trading external capital.

Trading a small personal account and expecting it to replace a salary is, for the overwhelming majority of traders, a pipe dream, at least in the time frame they are dreaming of. Not impossible. Just improbable enough that building a plan around it is poor risk management in itself. You have to ‘commercialise’ with some additional business thinking.


Enter the Capital Problem

You should face trading like any other business: if your own account can’t generate a living, the logic points somewhere else: bigger capital. Two conventional routes exist, and both come with a catch.

Launching your own fund is naturally very difficult, from raising capital, getting regulated and facing the compliance nightmare. Managing other people’s money invites a regulatory burden most independent traders have no appetite for: licensing, disclosure, custody, reporting, all before a single dollar gets put to work. Incredibly expensive in most jurisdictions.

The other route, and the one most new traders are sold, is a prop firm. Pay a fee, pass an evaluation, trade the firm’s capital. It sounds like the obvious middle ground. It usually isn’t.


Why Prop Firms Are Designed to Win

The uncomfortable truth is that prop firms aren’t built for you to succeed. They’re built for the firm to profit, and those are not the same objective, however aligned the marketing makes them sound.

Delphic Alpha published a good article on prop firms, their ‘challenges’ and rules here. He frames the prop firm challenge as a gambler’s ruin problem, reach a profit target before hitting a drawdown limit, and the theoretical maths already looks tough. Reality is worse, because several structural features stack against you at once:

  • Daily loss limits cap your position size long before your edge gets a fair run.
  • Trailing drawdown, where the floor rises with every new equity peak, cuts pass rates by roughly a third compared with a static floor.
  • Consistency rules cap your best day, quietly disqualifying trend-following and any strategy that earns its edge in concentrated bursts, regardless of the underlying Sharpe.
  • Time limits turn a skill test into a lottery. A 30-day window can cut pass rates nearly in half versus no deadline at all.
  • Two-phase structures multiply the penalty. Two independent probabilities of 55% and 80% become a combined 44%.

This isn’t trading. Its brutally not aligned with the reality of how most of us should approach the markets. This is a game designed by someone who wants to stop you applying good trading logic.

There’s a reason the trailing-drawdown mechanic bites so hard, and the explanation has nothing to do with prop firms specifically. Samir Varma’s research on stop-losses (The Stop-Loss That Stops Gains) tested the classic cut-your-losses rule against nearly thirty years of market data and found it usually backfires. Samir was on the podcast in Episodes 50 & 51 by the way. A fixed cutoff sells you out of positions that were about to recover, and doing that repeatedly compounds into more damage than simply holding through one larger drawdown ever would, what he calls death by a thousand cuts. He also found the standard way of scoring risk, return divided by drawdown, is mathematically broken: it rated the COVID crash, the fastest in modern market history, as merely below average risk. His fix is context: judge a drawdown against the regime it happened in, not against one static number.

A prop firm’s trailing drawdown is that exact static-cutoff problem, dressed up as risk management. It doesn’t ask whether a pullback is a normal pause in a calm market or the start of something systemic. It just ratchets the floor up and waits for you to touch it. Varma’s own alternative, dynamic, regime-aware thresholds tested as part of the live system, is the opposite of how every major firm’s drawdown rule works. One number, every regime, no context, and you’re out, regardless of whether your edge was ever actually broken.

Stack all of this together and the industry’s real-world pass rate, somewhere around 10%, implies most challengers are trading with next to no statistical edge at all. Even among those who pass, close to half lose the funded account within 90 days, and most of those failures happen early, on a daily-loss breach, not a bad strategy.

The deeper problem isn’t the pass rate. It’s that the rules force you to trade in a shape that isn’t your best shape. A trend follower gets punished for winning big on the right day. A patient swing trader gets punished for needing more than 30 days to prove an edge that needs a hundred. The firm isn’t testing whether you can trade well. It’s testing whether you can trade its way, and its way exists to protect the firm’s capital pool, not to showcase yours.

Unless your strategy happens to fit that specific mould (tight risk, frequent small wins, fast to target) you’re starting the fight already a round down.


A Better Deal: Trade As You Are

There’s a third option worth taking seriously: platforms like Darwinex, which flip the entire model. No evaluation. No elimination. No arbitrary rulebook designed to trip you up. You trade your own strategy, your own way, on your own account, and the platform simply certifies the track record: verified returns, drawdowns and risk, standardised so investors can compare it fairly against anyone else’s.

Build a strong enough record and capital finds you, through the platform’s own seed-capital allocation, through outside investors browsing the marketplace, even through people you already know who’d rather have exposure to what you do than do it themselves. Nobody is engineering the rules against you, because the platform’s own fee only exists if you perform. Its incentive and yours point the same direction, which is precisely what a prop firm challenge cannot claim.

It also sidesteps the fund-launch problem entirely. No licensing, no custody obligations, no compliance department standing between you and the market. You keep trading. The infrastructure handles the rest.

Personally, I’m looking forward to Darwinex making some enhancements to its platform to professionalise a bit. It’s as if they haven’t noticed just how innovative their own platform could be for more serious trading professionals trying to solve the exact issues I’ve outlined in this article. Currently, there’s a big focus on the retail trader, but if they turn their attention toward the more serious end of town, I’d consider coming on board myself.


Key Takeaways

  • If you’re trading a small personal account expecting it to fund your lifestyle, run the maths before you run the strategy.
  • If you’re eyeing a prop firm, work out exactly which style of trading its rules reward, then check honestly whether that’s your style.
  • If your edge is real and provable, don’t hand it to a challenge designed to filter you out. Certify it and let capital come to you.

The market doesn’t pay you for surviving a challenge-test. It pays you for being a good trader, which is what you’ll become only by harmonizing your personal style, beliefs & markets. As Samir said, the prop shops are institutions organized around the wrong theory of where the value lives.